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Kalameghalam / An exclusive interview with Dr. Melika Molk Ara, researcher and executive director, focusing on the application of future studies in strategic innovation and entrepreneurial opportunities
?Generally give a brief explanation about the concept of futurology Please
The futurology is a branch of social and human sciences assessing and analyzing trends and the patterns of events in the past to determine the possibility of the likely events, possible and desirable
In the analyzing the sources and past events either steady trends and variable trends are studied and these trends and the scientific analysis help to foresee the future. In other words the futurology can be considered as foresee of the probable future, possible or desirable in order to change from the present to the future
?What is the role futurology in businesses and industry developments
The futurology domain is a vast range of politics fields, economy, culture, education, art, etc. Generally futurology in all the fields depending on the human needs, plays a bold pattern because the human nature and change are bonded together. Today the organizations are considered as dynamic systems, obviously a dynamic system necessitates change and reconstruction. All businesses and industries whether service or production, to survive in tempestuous world have to consider changes and dynamicity and this will not be fulfilled unless by a concept called futurology. The futurology assists the businesses and organizations to pass through the political , social, economic, natural crises and etc. Perhaps if the organization managers and the business owners correctly utilize this concept combined with intelligence would be able to not only to pass through the turbulent situations but take the advantage of them and so to speak ride the wave while enjoying
?How futurology differs from forecasting
Well, futurology and forecast are very close in general concept and definition and in general cases and non scientific subjects sometimes are used in one sense but in fact are not the same
Forecasts usually are done in two ways; first based on the cause and effect relationship And “if so” logic, this type of forecasts are mostly observed in the scientist and medical activities, another type of forecasting is the quantitative type which is the linear estimation of variables in form of time series and simulation and repetition of past trends. For example metrological activities of the same basis. But futurology refuses a very probable future and investigates alternative futures and necessarily does not comply with the pas trends but maybe similar to the past trends
Forecasting usually the future obeys the past and the system is assessed apart from human influences and as much as possible the probable errors are reduced to zero and in this situations the results are usually quantitative and short time periods but the futurology process and the results are on the qualitative basis and long time periods and discussing about the possibility of the construction of a probable future also the social, political, economic, human , culture elements are considered. Another point to consider is that in the forecasting is mostly associated with speculations but in the futurology the logic aspects are considered assuming the possibility to build the future
?What is the futurology’s goals and assignments in the industries and businesses
The concept of futurology helps the business owners and online jobs and traditional jobs and traditional occupations to find the effective variables on their businesses faster and precisely and by anticipation of environmental crises and Knowing the threats and opportunities and strengths and weaknesses and be able to pass through the crises safely and if possible using the them for their benefits. Many crises could endanger the survival of organizations among them economic crisis and stagnancy conditions or inflation, currency fluctuations or political pressures from other countries like sanctions or natural calamities like floods and earthquake and etc. In all these cases, if industrial managers and business owners can’t predict the future correctly and for the confrontation woth these conditions and not being able to deal or dealing passively , depending on the type of organizations and economic-financial statues, sooner or later they will collapse
Pandemic crisis was the most tangible and the most recent of these crises that we all faces in a tangible way. As we observed many business suffered bankruptcy or faced a serious risk of extinction. But in the midst of this situations some businesses used it for the own interests and some of them made huge profits, like amazon which during the pandemic according to the needs of the customers and traffic limitation succeeded in responding timely to clients need also the customers were satisfied with their non attendance purchase for they could purchase what they needed without going to crowded and busy places and jeopardizing their lives and Amazon sales increased day by day which was considered win-win deal. Such crises as recently happened surely happens in the future, so if the business owners should consult futurology experts to predict possible, desirable and probable futures and necessary plans for each case. The description about pandemic crisis can be generalized and to other crises like economic political crisis social, culture, revolutionary crisis etc. As well. The totality of these crises is the same which is putting businesses and industries at risk, but their form, type or time may be different
?What are the executive tools of the futurology in businesses
Future research usually is done in two descriptive and prescriptive ways. In the descriptive method the futurology emphasizes the futures either happens or may happen and the possible scenarios will be provided but the prescriptive method from the perspective of the futurology, the desired future will surely happen and would be a great help to the business owners, as mentioned before futurology is considered in 3 ways, possible, probable and desirable. The using methods of futurology is study, research, analysis and providing solutions to the business owners In a way that futurologist initially assesses the environmental and effective conditions and weaknesses and strengths of an organization and based on the extensive studies conducts in all the affecting fields and obtains comprehensive view. The next step, by analyzing the conditions and speculating the possible situations, visualizing the desired future. Now the desired future is almost determined and it’s time to plan and the Plan should be in accordance with the social, political, economic and cultural dominant situation of business and industry environment, also the ability and capacities of the organization should be considered and according to the goals and weaknesses and strengths and threats and environmental opportunities the appropriate decision should be made. In the analysis and review stage the tools would be used, the futurologist uses methods such as environmental analysis, cyclical pattern analysis and trend analysis, Making perspectives and scenarios development which all cannot be covered on this discussion
…Let’s us know about the limitations of futurology in the businesses
Like other scientific and research methods the futurology deals with some unavoidable challenges and restrictions. Many of this limitations are within the organizations and some out of it which is imposed by the environment. In the intra organizational issues there are less limitations and sometimes the issues are solvable but when it comes to the issues outside the organization the systemic problems and limitations, the futurologist hands are sometimes tied up and the futurologist must inevitably proceed with an acceptable percentage of negligibility and errors. Information collection is one the limitations and because of the work of futurology is mostly qualitative, so naturally the information collection methods are complicated and intermingled. Another restriction is the common interests of the two competing companies, futurologist may have the information of companies competing in a mutual industry, so the information of a company may be abused by the competent company when at futurologist disposal, so the managers and the owners of the businesses and industries may not provide all the financial or political information of their companies to futurologist so this matter may causes challenges in the future planning and forecasting. Another issue is the environmental and external conditions that the industries operate which can lead to far severe effects on the industries than expected, for example sanctions, severe currency rate fluctuations, unexpected events, sever natural disasters sometimes can result in disorder in the policy of futurology. Also the laws and regulations of the country of the activity can directly affect the future researches, the importance of the exports and imports and the stability of the laws and regulations is a crucial point and limitation, for example; you suggest the exports to a company as the futurologist and all the essential planning and marketing is done the a foreign country and the sales contract is concluded. Suddenly a circular is issued and based on that exporting particular goods are prohibited until further notice. This is the worst damage to a company intended to be present in the international markets
There are many other problems and issues in this field, unfortunately there is no solid decision and determination to solve the problem but the future researchers regarding these limitation and other restrictions related to a particular industry may by a comprehensive analysis make appropriate decisions
